Big Third Down

Bad news on employment

By Jeff Thredgold, CSP
Jeff Thredgold, CSP, President, Thredgold Economic Associates
Courtesy of Thredgold Economic Associates

January’s U.S. employment report was the third in a series of massive hits to employment. More of the same is likely over the next few months.

The American economy lost an estimated 598,000 net jobs in January, exceeding economists’ consensus estimate of a 530,000 net employment decline. Adding insult to injury was a 66,000 increase in estimated jobs lost during the two prior months.

Adding more insult was the annual benchmark revision to prior data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Labor Department revised prior data to indicate that nearly three million net jobs were lost during 2008, versus the 2.6 million we were told of last month. A total of 3.6 million net jobs have now been lost since the current recession officially began in December 2007, with half—one half—of these jobs lost during the past three months alone.

The nation’s unemployment rate was also grim, with the rate rising to a 16-year high of 7.6%, versus 7.2% in December. Only a sharp decline in the estimated labor force prevented the rate from moving even higher.

Better news was found in earnings. Average hourly earnings rose five cents (0.3%) to $18.46, a 3.9% rise during the past 12 months. The 3.9% rise was meaningful in terms of purchasing power, as consumer inflation during the most recent 12-month period was only 0.1%.


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