Since ’54

And facts on drop trade...

By Jeff Thredgold, CSP
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Not So Bad

One positive aspect of the smaller trade deficit is that the U.S. Commerce Department’s first official estimate of fourth quarter U.S. economic weakness may not be as bad as feared.  The estimate, to be released on January 30, may be closer to a 4.0%-5.0% real (inflation adjusted) annual rate of decline rather than some forecasts of GDP declining at a 6.0% or worse real annual rate.  Most forecasters still expect the recession’s worst quarter to be the one just ended.

Net imports from China fell sharply to $23.1 billion in November, versus $28.0 billion the prior month. This decline will temporarily reduce pressure on the new Obama Administration to pressure the Chinese to boost the value of their currency.

The smaller November trade imbalance will also lessen pressure on the new Administration to engage other nations in extensive trade discussions. For the moment, the U.S. and all other major nations have bigger fish to fry, i.e. economic and financial stabilization.


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