When disruptive tech disrupts, hindsight is 20-20.

Even famous executives like Michael Dell can be surprised by market change. His comment to WSJ about the rise of the tablet: "I didn't completely see that coming." It does make me wonder a bit about his marketing staff. But it was his remark about Android that made me pause: "if you look at 18 months ago, Android phones were like, "What is that?" And now there are more Android phones than iPhones."

Consider this description, from another WSJ article, of mobile phone capabilities, "the handset logs calling data, messaging activity, search requests and online activities. Many smartphones also come equipped with sensors to record movements, sense its proximity to other people with phones, detect light levels, and take pictures or video. It usually also has a compass, a gyroscope and an accelerometer to sense rotation and direction." And Android phones support voice-activated search, e-mail response, and navigation. It would not be unreasonable to expect all smart phones to do all of these things, oh, maybe by next Thursday. And the following version may be quite usable.

How to interpret older adult usage of smart phones: first caution, then replace Personal Emergency Response System (PERS).

With all due respect to the Coughlin blog post theorizing why aging baby boomers are slow to buy smart phones, I read the Nielsen chart as indicative of a cautious baby boomer entry into a market of version 1 products. Boomers tend to wait and see what their children and peers are buying. Behind them are the still more cautious seniors age 65+.

But we can see where this is heading. And it makes me wonder about a number of aspects of the PERS (Personal Emergency Response System) market, including: Why would Qualcomm-etc. bother with the Lifecomm initiative for a new-age PERS device that is still not launched? Philips has done nicely with Lifeline with Auto Alert (most likely taking sales away from their traditional PERS device), but industry insiders that I talk to don't see the PERS market growing. In fact, those resources may best be deployed in other health-oriented chronic disease monitoring, likely to be reimbursed in the future to avoid re-hospitalization post discharge. For those who like to look ahead, the smartphone impact on a PERS market will be far more likely if call center players partner with carriers and smart phone makers to put apps in place that not only help us find a restaurant but help us get around and be found.