Those Ten Tech Trends for 2010

Are we there yet?

It's been more than six months since this blog post about tech trends that would influence product capability in 2010. It seems fitting to check on what's happened so far, with another status check planned just prior to the new year.

1. Location-aware tech enables more info, greater safety. GPS became even more useful in 2009. Verizon replaced its Chaperone service with Family Locator, the Alzheimer's Association introduced its ComfortZone (powered by OmniLink), several other tracking technology vendors launched, and location-based mapping and direction technologies developed further. The year was GPS enabled!

UPDATE: MobileHelp, ActiveCare, GPSMed, and QualComm/AMAC entered, found resellers, or launched initiatives, but it's still early—this trend may fizzle in favor of usable cell phones with GPS tracking and senior-appropriate call centers (today the Jitterbug J sends location with 911 calls).

2. Home automation technology vendors see possibilities. Just as home remodelers see possibilities in aging-in-place retrofits (70% of NAHB builders in 2009), home automation vendors also see possibilities in the market in a bad economy.

UPDATE: Caregiver Systems by HomeControls and CloseBy Networks tailor home automation systems for seniors; other vendors are in the process of launching systems, with more on the way.

3. Mobile health app possibilities grow. Mobile Web usage during 2009 got a growth spurt from boomers and seniors—and spawned new apps like LiveNurse from Jitterbug. According to Gartner, mobile health applications (along with location-based apps) are in the top 10 application growth areas for consumers.

UPDATE: Explosive interest because of smart phone growth (see gazillion iPhone health apps) and interest from health care providers. However, there's an adoption gap when it comes to seniors' participation.

4. Virtual doctors' visits and other health innovations become more accepted. A quiet revolution is happening in health care delivery: shared doctor visits, the video doctor “virtual visit,” health care without the doctor (for example, tracking and transmission of self-test results such as blood coagulation levels), etc. And this is before passage of any health care bill! Here’s a memorable passage from the New York Times article: "The only constant is change and resistance to change."

UPDATE: This one is inching along, depending on two factors. The first is reimbursement and insurance enthusiasm, underway in this New York State example. And doctors must want to participate—apparently, 40% of them now do.

5. Touch screens and eReaders set to take off. Touch screens became ubiquitous during 2009 for product demonstration computers used to demo software—like the Asus EEE, for example. And eReaders, which are particularly well suited to the boomer/senior population, saw rollout of the impressive Sony with touch screen as an alternative to the Kindle.

UPDATE: No need to belabor the eReaders, which have become quite popular, along with the eReader capabilities in the ever-so-famous iPad and the downloadable free eReaders. Touchscreens, and maybe the swipable iPad, iPhone, etc., have made the touchscreen an expected feature in tablets and phones. Touchscreen shipments, no kidding, are expected to increase 5,000% by the end of this year.

6. Big companies invest in monitoring and telehealth technologies. Let's reflect on GE and its acquisition of QuietCare, Intel and its $250 million partnership with GE, and Bosch (VitelNet), all added to Philips (read this backgrounder) as big firms intent on roles in the aging/health monitoring arena. The impact may have been limited in 2009, but validation of the market’s importance should be seen in 2010.

UPDATE: Not surprisingly, the pace of change for the large enterprises is slow, and I am aware of just limited progress—Philips launched Think Tanks on livable cities, health, and well-being in the past six months; Intel and GE launched a study; and remote health monitoring growth is still restrained by reimbursement.

7. Broadband access and Internet use among seniors grows. According to Forrester's research, 63% of 64- to 73-year-olds are online at least monthly. And Nielsen noted that six million more seniors are online today than five years ago—most likely because their broadband adoption has grown from 19% to 30% in the past year.

UPDATE: Unimpressive. Broadband adoption by seniors dropped to 26%—maybe cost in a tough economy was a factor. Thirty-eight percent are online, and there will be a growing number of alternatives to having your own broadband connection in the home (community, senior centers, libraries) and smart phone adoption among the soon-to-be-senior boomers.

8. Caregiver portals and tools blossom. The 2009 merger of Caring.com and Gilbert Guide forged the market's first million-views-per-month usage profile. As I once heard Jerry Shereshewsky, CEO of Grandparents.com, say: “That's the minimum level of usage in which advertisers take notice.” In addition, many have jumped into the caregiving space and will launch in 2010, meaning shared caregiver communication, health monitoring, and more.

UPDATE: More caregiving tools have emerged, reason enough to add vendors and commentary to the July Market Overview update. This space (for home care, home health professionals, and family caregivers) is at the beginning of a significant growth period, paralleling the rise in the aging population, the decline of nursing homes, and the stagnation of assisted living growth. Meanwhile, Grandparents.com was acquired; Jeffrey Mahl is now CEO.

9. Personal emergency response systems get a makeover. In 2009, we saw the emergence of Halo Monitoring's fall detection chest strap and belt clip, mobile PERS entrant Medical Mobile Monitoring, and Jitterbug's acquisition in the mobile PERS arena.

UPDATE: See #1 above. Not much change otherwise. In the traditional PERS category, Philips added Lifeline with AutoAlert for fall detection.

10. Last but not least, VCs show interest in aging in place technology. Finally, during 2009, we saw several VC investments in the aging in place tech arena, including a $7.5 million investment in WellAWARE Systems from Valhalla Partners and .406 Ventures; Menlo Ventures made an investment in Wellcore; Shasta Ventures invested $10 million in Caring.com; and Draper Fisher Jurvetson, Kleiner Perkins, and Physic Ventures are all examining the health and boomer markets.

UPDATE: Misplaced optimism in this one. Interest and curiosity, but not much is happening here right now, perhaps owing to general VC industry shrinkage. New firms now regularly mention angel investors, and foundations are still funding initiatives in the health and aging space (see this AARP announcement).

So that's the story from here—if it's incomplete, inaccurate, or insane, please advise!

By Laurie Orlov
Aging in Place Technology Watch Blog

[First posted July 21, 2010, at Laurie's Aging in Place Technology Watch Web site.]